Just eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the source for the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As Rogers curled home his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six matches, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look strangely fragile – however right now the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge they will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
