Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
